Monday, October 24, 2011

10/25 Almanac

On Monday, Oct. 24: Consumer confidence.

There are 25 trading days before the November options expire, 53 the December, 88 the January and 116 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.2% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.4% in a net move up of 1.1%.

The day's extremes: Open $124.17, high $125.80, low $124.06, close $125.49.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $124.78-$126.52.

In total, 2.8 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 10% less than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $115.11 and $135.87. The range is +/- $10.38 from the last closing price, 82¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.83%, three basis points higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The Conference Board releases its monthly report on consumer confidence at 10 a.m. Eastern. Since consumers are who keep the economy humming -- or groaning, of late -- the report can move markets.

Also out, two for the housing markets: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index at 9 a.m. and the FHFA house price index at 10 a.m. Case-Shiller is the more followed of the two.

And two weekly retail reports: ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m.

And finally, the State Street investor confidence index at 10 a.m.

Treasury auctions 4-week bills at 11:30 a.m. and 2-year notes at 1 p.m.

An eerie silence has enshrouded the Fedsters, perhaps in anticipation of Halloween. Will Chairman Bernanke go trick-or-treating as a scary Quantitative Easer? (And what would that costume look like?)

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade November vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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