10/13 Indicators

I’ve made a slight modification in the way I code trends. Previously, for an uptrend, I was requiring a higher high and then a retracement to a higher low on another day. That leads to all sorts of dumb problems, such as a rapidly rising stock that hasn’t retraced, being coded as neutral or a downtrend. By allowing intra-day lows into the mix, I solve the logical problems. In this chart, many trends coded neutral have been changed to uptrends.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): the 10-day moving average has crossed above the 40-day MA.

The fear index (VIX), for fourth time, has bounced off of the lower boundary of a sideways trend that began in mid-August.

Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) have set a lower low, moving to a downtrend.

Emerging markets (EEM) has broken above the descending price channel that it has been tracing since early August.

Stocks

sym	phase	trend	adx		200/50	40/10
SPY
QQQ
VIX

Bonds

sym	phase	trend	adx		200/50	40/10
TLT
JNK

Tangibles

sym	phase	trend	adx		200/50	40/10
USO
GLD
JJC

Global

sym	phase	trend	adx		200/50	40/10
UUP
EEM

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
GLD - gold, a counter-directional proxy for inflation fears.
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USO - crude oil
UUP - U.S. dollar index, against a basket of currencies; largely a dollar-euro proxy
VIX - fear index, implied volatility of the S&P 500

Key

• phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
• trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for sideways, and grey for neutral or ambiguous.
• adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
• 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.