Tuesday, October 4, 2011

AAPL Watch

Watching Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) stock price during Tuesday's news conference to roll out the new iPhone and other products was a bit like watching a political focus group using the hand dials where they can register how much they like or dislike what's being said.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

During the first 85 minutes, the price dropped steadily, at one point losing 4.8% from when the newser started. The price only picked up when CEO Timothy Cook began to talk about the new iPhone's built-in voice-activated assistant (sort of like the old Microsoft Office's Clippy on steroids).

If I were Apple's new CEO, I would worry a bit about that.

The decline broke out below the 20-day Donchian price channel, putting AAPL in bear phase, and set a lower low, marking the start of a downtrend.

It touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the price rise beginning June 21 from a low of $310.50 up to the high on Sept. 20 of $422.86.


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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