A change in the chart: I’m finding a need to distinguish between a sideways trend (yellow) and a neutral trend, which is really the same as an ambiguous trend. See SPY and UUP in the discussion below for examples. From today, I’ll be coding neutral, or ambiguous, trends as grey.
The S&P 500 (SPY) exceeded its high of Sept. 27, and by setting a higher high has moved to a neutral trend. A higher low would signal an uptrend.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), however, has so far fallen short of a higher high and so remains coded as a downtrend.
Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) bounced off the level of the previous low, establishing a sideways trend.
The U.S. dollar (UUP) has moved to neutral trend after setting a lower low. A lower high will signal a downtrend.
Emerging markets (EEM) has bounced slightly off of the level of its prior high and I’ve switched the analysis to sideways trend. But it’s a bit ambiguous still.
Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
GLD - gold, a counter-directional proxy for inflation fears.
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USO - crude oil
UUP - U.S. dollar index, against a basket of currencies; largely a dollar-euro proxy
VIX - fear index, implied volatility of the S&P 500
- phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
- trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for sideways, and grey for ambiguous.
- adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
- 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
- 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
About my trading methods
Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.
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