Friday, October 28, 2011

10/31 Almanac

On Monday, Oct. 31: Trick Or Treat!! Chicago purchasing managers index.

There are 19 trading days before the November options expire, 47 the December, 82 the January and 110 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.02% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.8% in a net move up of 0.5%.

The day's extremes: Open $128.00, high $128.85, low $127.80, close $128.60.

SPY traded entirely within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $128.20-$129.25.

In total, 2.8 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 34% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $119.57 and $137.63. The range is +/- $9.03 from the last closing price, 42¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 2%, one basis point lower than the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The Institute of Supply Management will release a survey of business conditions in Chicagoland at 9:45 a.m. Eastern. Chicago is an avatar for the industrial economy, and the purchasing managers part of the survey name is an historical artifact, with the current survey being somewhat broader.

The Agriculture Department reports on farm prices at 3 p.m.

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. and announces funding requirements for 4-week bills at 11 a.m.

The Fedsters are laying low on Monday as they meditate and do stretching exercises prior to a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee beginning Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

As the week progresses, look for the Institute of Supply Management's national manufacturing index at on Tuesday, the FOMC meeting announcement on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and the Labor Department's report on unemployment and employment on Friday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade November vertical and calendar spreads, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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