Wednesday, October 5, 2011

10/6 Almanac

On Thursday, Oct. 6: Jobless claims.

There are 16 trading days before the October options expire, 44 the November, 72 the December and 107 the January.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.9% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 2.8% in a net move up of 1.6%.

The day's extremes: Open $112.62, high $114.72, low $111.58, close $114.42.

SPY traded entirely within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $113.00-$116.14.

In total, 3.7 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 21% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $102.02 and $126.82. The range is +/- $12.40 from the last closing price, $0.66 narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.58%, three basis points higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Weekly jobless claims, a report that often moves the markets, will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Other reports: Chain stores will report sales throughout the day, Bloomberg consumer comfort index at 9:45 a.m., natural gas at 10:30 a.m., and the Federal Reserve's weekly double play: The Fed balance sheet and money supply stats at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury will announcement funding requirements for 3- and 6-month bills, 3- and 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds at 11 a.m., and will report on treasury STRIPS activity at 3 p.m.

No Fedsters at the podium.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade October vertical and calendar spreads, as well as January or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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