10/5 Indicators

I’ve added the exchange-traded fund that tracks copper, JJC, to the Tangibles section. Copper is widely used in many products and so demand for the metal is a reasonable leading indicator of industrial activity.

Tuesday’s explosive late day rise was insufficient to change the trend or the phase of the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Returning to neutral phase requires that the issue trade entirely within the 20-day Donchian price channel for a day. A change to an uptrend requires a higher high and higher low. Neither definitional requirement has been met.

The situation is similar with Treasury long-term debt (TLT), corporate high-yield debt (JNK), crude oil (USO), the U.S. dollar (UUP) and emerging markets (EEM).

The QQQ 10-day moving average has dropped below the 40 day average.

Stocks

sym	phase	trend	adx		200/50	40/10
SPY
QQQ
VIX

Bonds

sym	phase	trend	adx		200/50	40/10
TLT
JNK

Tangibles

sym	phase	trend	adx		200/50	40/10
USO
GLD
JJC

Global

sym	phase	trend	adx		200/50	40/10
UUP
EEM

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USO - crude oil
UUP - U.S. dollar index
VIX - fear index

Key

• phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
• trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
• adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
• 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.