10/17 Forex

EUR/USD dropped US$0.0149 in three hours after some Euro-crisis trash-talk fromGerman Chancellor Merkel. The decline is 80% of the daily average true range. The price has settled between the Fibonacci 50% and 38.2% retracement levels.

EUR/THB has bounced off the ceiling of a sideways channel that has been in force since mid-September. The channel floor is just below ฿49.

EUR/TRY has broken above its 20-day high and also above a sideways price channel in effect since mid-September.

NZD/THB has bounced off the ceiling of a downtrend channel that began Aug. 1.

USD/ILS has broken below its 20-day low and pierced teh floor of a month-old sideways channel in a decline that began Oct. 4.

What I Track

For the daily charts, I track approximately 120 currency pairs. For the hourlies, I track the dozen most important pairs, with two NOK pairs added in, because of their energy sector connection.

The majors, in declining importance, are EUR/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, USD/NOK and EUR/NOK.

Key

• phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
• trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
• adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
• 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.