Friday, October 14, 2011

10/17 Almanac

On Monday, Oct. 17: Industrial production.

There are five trading days before the October options expire, 33 the November, 61 the December and 96 the January.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.7% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.1% in a net move up of 0.5%.

The day's extremes: Open $121.91, high $122.60, low $121.23, close $122.57.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $121.90-$123.27.

In total, 2.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 7% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $112.68 and $132.46. The range is +/- $9.89 from the last closing price, 67¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.72%, four basis points higher than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

A potential market-mover, industrial production, will be released at 9:15 a.m. Eastern by the Federal Reserve Board , following the Empire State manufacturing survey at 8:30 a.m. from the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

Treasury will auction 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m., and announce funding requirements for 4-week bills at 11 a.m.

Two Fedsters at the podium:

Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, rose professionally through the Fed system.

Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker, an FOMC alternate, taught economics at Purdue University before coming to work for the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank in 1989.

Both took office under President George W. Bush.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of speeches and testimony.

Later in the week, look for the producer price index on Tuesday; the consumer price index and housing starts on Wednesday; weekly jobless claims,existing home sales and the Philly Fed survey on Thursday; and a lone dissident Fedster speaking on Friday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade November vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as January or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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