Monday, October 10, 2011

10/11 Almanac

On Tuesday, Oct. 11: Nothing of consequence.

There are 11 trading days before the October options expire, 39 the November, 67 the December and 102 the January. (Corrected)

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 3.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.7% in a net move up of 1.7%.

The day's extremes: Open $117.68, high $119.63, low $117.67, close $119.58.

SPY traded entirely above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $118.63-$120.59.

In total, 2.5 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 23% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $108.28 and $130.88. The range is +/- $11.30 from the last closing price, 9¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.73%, one basis point lowerer than the prior day. The U.S. bond market was closed on Monday.

Econ reports:

The National Federation of Independent Business -- NFIB -- releases its small business optimism index at 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Just as an aside, in 30 years as a journalist, there are two groups of people whom I have never seen show the least bit of optimism: One is farmers, and the other is small-business owners. These are pessimistic people by nature, for good reason, given their lack of control over their business environments. Plus, is a report from an organization that has "FIB" in its acronym truly to be trusted?

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m., and 3-year notes at 1 p.m., and announces funding requirements for 4-week bills at 11 a.m.

No Fedsters at the podium.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of speeches and testimony.

I neglected last Friday to provide a week-ahead, so here 'tis, a bit late. Despite an agonizingly boring beginning, the week perks up with Federal Open Market Committee minutes on Wednesday, international trade and jobless claims on Thursday, and the government's retail sales report on Friday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade November vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as January or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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