Thursday, October 13, 2011

10/14 Almanac

On Friday, Oct. 14: Retail sales.

There are eight trading days before the October options expire, 36 the November, 64 the December and 99 the January. (Days to go in previous postings this week were in off by a couple of days because of a mis-set parameter and have been corrected.)

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.2% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.5% in a net move up of 0.4%.

The day's extremes: Open $120.04, high $120.87, low $119.12, close $120.51.

SPY closed below the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $119.82-$121.57.

In total, 2.6 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 14% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $109.95 and $131.07. The range is +/- $10.56 from the last closing price, 16¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.68%, six basis points lower than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Two government reports at 8:30 a.m. Eastern kick off the day: Retail sales, which has a high impact on the markets, and import and export prices, which also sometimes can move the course of trading.

Also out, three other important reports: Consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m., business inventories at 10 a.m., and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

No Fedsters are on the speaking calendar -- early weekend, anyone?

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade November vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as January or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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