Wednesday, October 12, 2011

10/12 Forex

Beginning today, I’ve expanded my universe of currency pairs tracked to approximately 120. The change gives better representation to currencies outside of Europe and the former British Commonwealth.

AUD/CAD has broken above the 20-day Donchian price level into bull phase. The pair has been in a wide sideways trend since early August.

EUR/USD has jumped to the next Fibonacci retracement level, in an upward move that could be taken from a high-school physics illustration of quantum leaps. The pair is retracing the decline that began Sept. 15. The sharp upward move carried the price, in less than three hours, from the 61.8% retracement to the 78.6% level, where it has settled for more than five hours.

HKD/JPY has pushed sharply above the 20-day highest high for the first time since Sept. 9.

Other yen Donchian breakouts: USD/JPY and PLN/JPY to the upside.

USD/HKD has moved below the 20-day lowest low, a price level that has provided strong support twice before. The pair has been trading in a sideways range since mid-June.

What I Track

For the daily charts, I track approximately 120 currency pairs. For the hourlies, I track the dozen most important pairs, with two NOK pairs added in, because of their energy sector connection.



  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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