Friday, November 25, 2011

11/28 Almanac

On Monday, Nov. 28: New home sales.

There are 19 days before the December options expire, 54 the January, 82 the February and 110 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.2% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.3% in a net move down of 4¢.

The day's extremes: Open $116.38, high $117.70, low $116.20, close $116.34.

SPY traded entirely within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $115.52-$117.02.

In total, 1.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 55% fewer than on the prior trading day, in a shorted post-holiday session.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $104.87 and $127.81. The range is +/- $11.47 from the last closing price, 15¢ wider than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.77%, four basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The lone economic report of the day is the government's new home sales release at 10 a.m. Eastern.

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m., and announces 4-week bill requirements at 11 a.m.

No Fedsters are at the podium -- overstuffed with turkey, dressing and pumpkin pie?

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

As the week progresses, look for consumer confidence on Tuesday; pending home sales on Wednesday; jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing index on Thursday; and employment/unemployment on Friday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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