Thursday, November 10, 2011

11/10 Forex

Notes on this morning’s forex...

AUD/NZD has broken the downtrend in its relative strength index, by one percentage point. The bearish RSI divergence of a week earlier set off a slight decline that never broke free of the sideways price trend in effect since Oct. 25. A bearish RSI divergence means the index, while above 70, began to fall as the price rose.

The developing PLN/HUF bearish RSI divergence has been invalidated, as the the RSI rises ABOVE its prior high.

Channels of interest:

CAD/PLN and NZD/HUF have each flipped from a downtrend to an uptrend. The move, in both cases, can also be analyzed as a fluctuation within a larger, somewhat sloppy sideways trend.

USD/HKD has established a strong uptrend after meandering ambiguously for eight days, pushing strongly up to beyond the pair’s 20-day high.


  • GBP/AUD, GBP/CZK, USD/HKD from Oct. 28.
  • USD/SGD from Oct. 31.
  • CAD/PLN, NZD/HUF from Oct. 4.


  • EUR/USD from Oct. 27.
  • NZD/JPY, GBP/THB from Oct. 31
  • AUD/PLN, AUD/ZAR, GBP/ZAR from Nov. 1.

What I Track

For the daily charts, I track approximately 120 currency pairs.

Channels of interest: By "of interest", I mean a relatively new trend that has room to move before meeting major resistance, especially if it’s a decisive bounce off of a 20-day high or low. Plus, it has to look right to me. This is not science. Also, channels of interest aren’t necessarily positions I would play without some sort of corroborating momentum evidence.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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