Tuesday, November 8, 2011

11/9 Almanac

On Wednesday, Nov. 9: Bernanke speech, petroleum inventories.

There are 10 trading days before the November options expire, 38 the December, 73 the January and 101 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.8% in a net move up of 0.8%.

The day's extremes: Open $126.92, high $128.02, low $125.71, close $127.88.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $126.80-$129.11.

In total, 2.7 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 7% more than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $117.77 and $137.99. The range is +/- $10.11 from the last closing price, 70¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 2.00%, one basis point lower than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

Petroleum inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Sometimes a mover for the energy sector.

Also out, the Mortgage Bankers' weekly purchase applications report, a leading indicator for home sales, at 7 a.m., and wholesale trade at 10 a.m.

Treasury auctions 10-year notes at 1:30 p.m.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses a conference at 9:30 a.m.

Also, Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, will speak at 12:15 p.m. Prior to his appointment by President Barack Obama, he had worked in the Clinton administraton and for the late Sen. Teddy Kennedy.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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