Thursday, November 10, 2011

11/11 Almanac

On Friday, Nov. 11: Veterans day: Bonds off, stocks not. Consumer sentiment.

There are eight trading days before the November options expire, 36 the December, 71 the January and 99 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.9% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.5% in a net move down of 0.4%.

The day's extremes: Open $124.79, high $124.94, low $123.02, close $124.32.

SPY traded above the DeMark pivots before closing within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $122.71-$124.63.

In total, 2.8 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 13% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $112.61 and $136.03. The range is +/- $11.71 from the last closing price, $1.09 narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.99%, nine basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

Friday is Veterans Day in the United States. The bond market is closed, but stocks and options will trade their normal schedule.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report will be released at 9:55 a.m. Eastern.

Two Fedsters have appearances.

Vice-Chairwoman Janet Yellen, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, worked in the Clinton adminstration and the Council on foreign relations before being appointed to her present. She speaks at 1:15 p.m.

San Francisco Fed Pres John Williams, an FOMC alternate, came up through the Fed system. He speaks at 2:45 p.m.

Both took office under President Obama.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade December vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls, as well as February or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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