11/9 Forex

Notes on this morning’s forex...

AUD/NZD rose to a slightly higher high but swiftly retreated and resumed its agonizingly slow fall on the hourly charts. The decline began following a bearish divergence on the relative strength index. A bearish RSI divergence means the index, while above 70, began to fall as the price rose.

The developing PLN/HUF bearish RSI divergence is close to being invalidated as the RSI rises to its prior high.

Channels of interest:

EUR/USD fell sharply to its 20-day low, invalidating its uptrending channel. The pair is now best analyzed as a downtrending channel that began Oct. 27.

GBP/AUD and USD/SGD widened their uptrending channels after a sideways move lasting several days.

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, GBP/THB, AUD/PLN, AUD/ZAR, CAD/PLN, GBP/ZAR, NZD/HUF continue sideways moves that have created ambiguity regard their downtrending channels.

Uptrending,

• GBP/AUD, GBP/CZK from Oct. 28.
• USD/SGD, from Oct. 31.

Downtrending,

• EUR/USD from Oct. 27.
• NZD/USD, AUD/CAD, AUD/HKD, AUD/THB, NZD/THB from Oct. 28.
• NZD/JPY, GBP/THB from Oct. 31
• AUD/PLN, AUD/ZAR, CAD/PLN, GBP/ZAR, NZD/HUF from Nov. 1.

What I Track

For the daily charts, I track approximately 120 currency pairs.

Channels of interest: By "of interest", I mean a relatively new trend that has room to move before meeting major resistance, especially if it’s a decisive bounce off of a 20-day high or low. Plus, it has to look right to me. This is not science. Also, channels of interest aren’t necessarily positions I would play without some sort of corroborating momentum evidence.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.