Tuesday, November 29, 2011

11/30 Almanac

On Wednesday, Nov. 30: Pending home sales, employment preview.

There are 17 days before the December options expire, 52 the January, 80 the February and 108 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.2% and closed unchanged.

The day's extremes: Open $120.05, high $121.00, low $119.61, close $120.05.

SPY traded entirely within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $119.36-$120.75.

In total, 2.5 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, barely changed from the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $109.47 and $130.63. The range is +/- $10.58 from the last closing price, 32¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.82%, three basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The National Association of Realtors releases its pending home sales index at 10 a.m. Eastern. The report tracks real-estate transactions where the contract has been signed but the deal hasn't closed, making it a leading indicator for completed sales a month or so down the road.

Also out and significant: The payroll company ADP's employment report at 8:15 a.m. (a preview of the government's jobs report on Friday), productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Fed's narrative of economic conditions in each region -- the Beige Book -- at 2 p.m.

In other words, busy busy.

The don't care muches: The Mortgage Bankers' purchase applications report at 7 a.m., the layoffs report from Challenger, Grey and Christmas at 7:30 a.m., and farm prices at 3 p.m.

No Fedsters are declaiming.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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