Thursday, December 1, 2011

12/1 Forex

Notes on this morning’s forex...

Universally, the pairs I cover are in a state of morning-after exhaustion after Wednesday’s sharp Euro-crisis moves. Those that rose sharply have fallen but within the range of the prior day, and those that fell have risen, within the range.

AUD/NZD, among the pairs, is nearest to the channel boundary (the ceiling in this case), with the relative strength index at 59. Establishment of a downward trend -- a lower low -- would make it a tradeable pair for my account under my rules.

The other pairs are too far from the channel boundary to be in my comfort zone. Also, at this point I’m steering clear of any EUR pair, because the crisis guarantees black swans.

On the weekly charts...

Weekly Channels

pair chan from
AUD/CAD   Oct. 28
AUD/JPY   April 11
AUD/NZD   March 7
AUD/USD   Aug. 1
EUR/AUD   Dec 15, 2010
EUR/CAD   May 2
EUR/CHF   Aug. 8
EUR/GBP   June 27
EUR/USD   May 2
GBP/AUD   March 14
GBP/CAD   July 12, 2010
GBP/JPY   Aug. 3, 2009
GBP/USD   April 25
NZD/USD   Oct. 28
USD/CAD   July 25, 2011
USD/JPY   June 1, 2009
Green means uptrending channel; red means downtrending channel; yellow is a sideways move.


NZD/USD is in a complex move: A downtrending channel from Aug. 1 within an uptrending channel that began May 11, 2009 or earlier. For this ongoing study, I’ll track the more recent trend in the table above and note changes in the longer uptrending channel here in the notes.

I’ve excluded high-volume pairs including CHF because of the Swiss government’s active intervention in the markets to keep the currency from rising. I’ll pick the CHF pairs up again if the policy changes.

I’ve retained the JPY pairs as Japan’s interventions appear to be less consistent than those of the Swiss.

About my trading methods

A discussion of my strategy for trading forex.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

No comments:

Post a Comment