The markets this morning...
The VIX and JJC are trading beyond their trend channels, throwing their charts into ambiguity and confusion.
SPY (S&P 500) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) is within a sideways channel that began Aug. 8.
VIX (fear index) is trading below a sideways channel that began Aug. 9. The breakdown can be analyzed as either a widening of the sideways channel, or a downtrending channel beginning Oct. 4.
TLT (Treasury long-term debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began Oct. 4.
JNK (corporate high-yield debt) is trading within a downtrending channel that began July 18.
USO (crude oil) is trading within a downtrending channel that began May 2.
GLD (gold) is trading above a downtrending channel that began Sept. 5.
JJC (copper) is trading within a declining channel beginning Aug. 1. It can also be seen as forming an uptrending channel from Oct. 20, but it would take a higher high beyond $48.21 to confirm the latter interpretation.
UUP (U.S. dollar) is trading within a downtrending channel that began June 7.
EEM (emerging markets) is trading within a downtrending channel from May 2.
A Note on Granularity: The table of indicators is based on a daily chart; the channel positioning is based on a weekly chart.
Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
GLD - gold, a counter-directional proxy for inflation fears.
JJC - copper, a proxy for industrial actrivity.
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USO - crude oil
UUP - U.S. dollar index, against a basket of currencies; largely a dollar-euro proxy
VIX - fear index, implied volatility of the S&P 500
- phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
- trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for sideways, and grey for neutral or ambiguous.
- adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
- 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
- 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
About my trading methods
Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.
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