Tuesday, December 6, 2011

12/7 Almanac

On Wednesday, Dec. 7: Petroleum inventories.

There are 10 days before the December options expire, 45 the January, 73 the February and 101 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 4¢ from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.1% in a net move up of 5¢.

The day's extremes: Open $126.21, high $127.11, low $125.76, close $126.26.

SPY closed within the DeMark pivots after trading above their range. The next DeMark pivots are $126.01-$127.36.

In total, 2.3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, down 12% from the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $116.17 and $136.35. The range is +/- $10.09 from the last closing price, 5¢ wider than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.86%, two basis points lower than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

There is one report due out that potentially can move the markets, petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. But it mainly has influence in the energy sector.

Otherwise, there are three minor reports: The Mortgage Bankers' weekly purchase applications at 7 a.m., the Commerce Department's quarterly survey of the the services sector at 10 a.m., and the Federal Reserve's consumer credit report at 3 p.m.

Fed Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, gives a speech at 8:30 a.m. Before moving into her current job under President Obama, Raskin had institutional ties to Maryland state government and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors and Promontory Financial Group LLC.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade January vertical and calendar spreads and March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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