Friday, December 9, 2011

12/12 Almanac

On Monday, Dec. 12: Federal deficit.

There are five days before the December options expire, 40 the January, 68 the February and 96 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 1.7% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.6% in a net move up of 1.2%.

The day's extremes: Open $124.51, high $126.37, low $124.40, close $126.05.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots after trading within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $125.23-$127.20.

In total, 2.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, down 10% from the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $116.42 and $135.68. The range is +/- $9.63 from the last closing price, $1.26 narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.77%, two basis points higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

One lonely government report will be released: The Treasury budget, at 2 p.m. Eastern. It gives the latest federal budget deficit figures.

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. and 3-year notes at 1 p.m., and announces 4-week bill requirements at 11 a.m.

No Fedsters are scheduled to speak.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

As the week progresses, look for retail sales and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday; jobless claims, the producer price index, industrial production and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey on Thursday; and the consumer price index on Friday.

Trading Calendar

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade January vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads as well as iron condors and covered calls, and March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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