Thursday, December 1, 2011

12/2 Almanac

On Friday, Dec. 2: Employment, unemployment rate.

There are 15 days before the December options expire, 50 the January, 78 the February and 106 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 2¢ from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.0% in a net move up of 0.1%.

The day's extremes: Open $124.85, high $125.64, low $124.43, close $124.97.

SPY traded entirely within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $124.70-$125.91.

In total, 2.6 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, down 29% from the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $115.13 and $134.81. The range is +/- $9.84 from the last closing price, 10¢ narrower than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.88%, unchanged from the prior trading day.

Econ reports

The Labor Department releases the monthly detailed employment report and headline unemployment rate at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The report is one end of the tug-of-war going on in the markets -- hopefulness about ht e U.S. economy and fear of a European financial collapse.

While "Keep hope alive" is a good slogan, all of us bears who saw profits evaporate on Nov. 30 are loudly and whole-heartedly cheering on the side of fear. "Keep fear alive" -- that's our motto, at least during the trading day.

Also out, the Monster employment index from the job-search site, sometime during the day.

Three Fedsters are at the podium on Friday: Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser and Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren.

Fisher and Plosser not only sit on the Federal Open Market Committee, but they are members of the Gang of Three, dissidents who during the summer voted against expanding the money supply to encourage economic growth.

Rosengren doesn't sit on the money policy committee, and so, while no doubt a fascinating speaker, lacks dramatic value.

Fisher's resume shows institutional ties to former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s strategic advisory firm, the private bank Brown Brothers Harriman Inc., and his own money management firm.

Plosser has had institutional ties to Chase Manhattan Bank, Eastman Kodak Co., Wyatt Co., ViaHealth Inc., RGS Energy Group Inc. and Chase Manhattan Bank, all in consulting or advisory capacities. He also co-chaired the Shadow Open Market Committee, which second-guessed the Fed’s monetary policy.

Rosengren came up through the Fed system as a research economist. He has served as an advisor on Japanese banking.

All three assumed their present offices under President George W. Bush.

The speaking times: Fisher at 9 a.m., Plosser at 10 a.m. and Rosengren at 1:30 p.m.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

No comments:

Post a Comment