Friday, December 2, 2011

12/5 Almanac

On Monday, Dec. 5: Factory orders, non-manufacturing index.

There are 12 days before the December options expire, 47 the January, 75 the February and 103 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.4% in a net move down of 1.0%.

The day's extremes: Open $126.12, high $126.50, low $124.78, close $124.86.

SPY closed within the DeMark pivots after trading above their range. The next DeMark pivots are $123.96-$125.68.

In total, 2.5 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, down 7% from the prior trading day.

Implied volatility suggests a 68% chance that SPY will close, 30 days from now, between $114.98 and $134.74. The range is +/- $9.88 from the last closing price, 4¢ wider than on the prior trading day.

Bond yields imply that inflation, over the next five years, will average 1.89%, one basis point higher than on the prior trading day.

Econ reports

Two potential market-movers, although not top rank, kick off the week at 10 a.m. Eastern: Factory orders and the Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing index.

Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. and announces requirements for 4-week bills at 11 a.m.

Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans speaks at 12:10 p.m.

He is perhaps the most accomodationist of all the Federal Open Market Committee members, dissenting in a November vote to maintain current policies on grounds that the Fed should do more to encourage growth.

Evans came up through the Fed system before assuming his present position under President George W. Bush.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive of selected speeches and testimony.

Overall, it will be a slow week, with only two top-rank reports: Jobless claims on Thursday and international trade on Friday.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade January vertical and calendar spreads and March or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Enjoy the weekend!

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