Notes on this morning’s forex...
USD/CAD is at the floor of its trend channel with a still declining relative strength index, now at 42. RSI support is at 40, and if that level holds then the pair may be primed for a reversal to the upside.
AUD/NZD continues to trade near the ceiling, at NZ$1.316 of a gently declining trend channel. Very near term price support is at NZ$1.306, and a drop below that level accompanied by a declining RSI would suggest a downside reversal is underway.
EUR/AUD is trading a third sideways day near its 20-day low, a broad support range that has provided a bounce three times since late July. Fourth time’s the charm?
On the weekly charts...
Weekly Channels
| pair | chan | from |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | Oct. 28 | |
| AUD/JPY | April 11 | |
| AUD/NZD | March 7 | |
| AUD/USD | Aug. 1 | |
| EUR/AUD | Dec 15, 2010 | |
| EUR/CAD | May 2 | |
| EUR/CHF | Aug. 8 | |
| EUR/GBP | June 27 | |
| EUR/JPY | ||
| EUR/USD | May 2 | |
| GBP/AUD | March 14 | |
| GBP/CAD | July 12, 2010 | |
| GBP/JPY | Aug. 3, 2009 | |
| GBP/USD | April 25 | |
| NZD/USD | Oct. 28 | |
| USD/CAD | July 25, 2011 | |
| USD/JPY | June 1, 2009 |
Notes:
NZD/USD is in a complex move: A downtrending channel from Aug. 1 within an uptrending channel that began May 11, 2009 or earlier. For this ongoing study, I’ll track the more recent trend in the table above and note changes in the longer uptrending channel here in the notes.
I’ve excluded high-volume pairs including CHF because of the Swiss government’s active intervention in the markets to keep the currency from rising. I’ll pick the CHF pairs up again if the policy changes.
I’ve retained the JPY pairs as Japan’s interventions appear to be less consistent than those of the Swiss.
About my trading methods
A discussion of my strategy for trading forex.
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.
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