Thursday, March 11, 2010

SPY Chart Talk

The S&P 500 exchange-traded fund SPY closed decisively above the $115.14 resistance level, suggesting that the uptrend that began in March 2009 at $67.10 has resumed.

SPY opened the day zig-zagging below $114.70 and then made a series of upward runs, beginning around 12:35 p.m. Eastern.

The first charge ran out of steam at $115.03. The second succeeded, closing above resistance at 3:08 p.m.



For the next 52 minutes, the price treated $115.14 as support rather than resistance, showing an unambiguous reversal at that level at 3:37 p.m. before rising again to a high in after-hours trading of $115.54. The session close, a few minutes  prior, was $115.45.

The $115.14 level is the high set on Jan. 14 at the end of a 71.6% rise that began on March 6, 2009, at $67.10.

Now that the resistance level has become support, the game changes. I plan to take $115.14 as support and look for higher resistance levels, such as $116.69, $121.18, $128 and $131.51.

If SPY were to reverse, pierce $115.14 downward and close below that level, then of course we're back to where we were on Wednesday, mired in ambiguity.

The after-hours high is only 0.3% above the new support. Until the price puts some more daylight between it and that support level, I think it's reasonable to expect some testing.

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