Macd to Psar

I'm reworking my Morningline stable to focus on the Parabolic Stop and Reverse Indicator, the psar, and demoting the macd to a subsidiary, confirming role.

Here's what I wrote yesterday, after prices moved against nearly every macd bear signal on the Watchlist.

So, practically everything moved the wrong way.  A watchlist disaster, so to speak.

From this I conclude

1. The mfi and macd are bad signals when used by themselves. 
2. The psar gave mainly good signals, but when it was wrong, it was pretty spectacular.
3. The pps gave mixed results.
4. I've not been tracking the stochastic until weak, so the court is still out.

As a way forward, I'm thinking to first look at the psar, and then interpret that in light of the mfi, macd and stochastic as future trend indicators, and then make a final judgement based on the price trend and support/resistance levels, that last being the best analytical tool in my book.

The lesson here, I think, is never hold back from change if the results don't fit your hypotheses, as happened yesterday. As a fact-based trader, I can do none other.

Here are some psar explainers: StockCharts, Investopedia, Wikipedia.

And here are the updated numbers for this morning (the changes are to the date the signal appeared and closing price on that date):

Indicators:

• Blue chip stocks etf (SPY) is trading at $112.23, entered psar bull mode at close on Feb. 11 (at $108.13)
• Fear index or volatility (VIX) 19.23, bear (bullish for stocks), Feb. 17 (21.72)
• Treasury long bonds (TLT) $90.98, bull, Feb. 25 ($91.20)
• Corporate junk bonds (JNK) $38.52, bull, Feb. 22 ($38.91) 
• Emerging markets (EEM) $39.93, bull, Feb. 11 ($39.93)
• Gold (GLD) $110.18, bull, Feb. 11 ($107.13)
• Oil (USO) $38.71, bull, Feb. 16, ($37.20)

Forex currency pairs:

• Dollars per euro (EUR/USD) $1.3518, bear, Feb. 18 ($1.3526)
• Yen per dollar (USD/JPY) ¥89.10, bear, Feb. 25 (¥89.07)

Stock option holdings, March expiry:

• AKS, iron condor (p19/-p20/-c25/c26), $22.53, bear, Feb. 24 ($21.37)
• CAL, covered call (-c19), $20.66, bull, Feb. 9 ($19.16)
• CSCO, iron condor (p22/-p23/-c25/c26), $24.64, bull, Feb. 4 ($23.16)
• GCI, covered call (-c15), $16.00, bull, Feb. 16 ($14.80) 
• WFC, iron condor (p26/-p27/-c29/c30), $27.97, bull, Feb. 22 ($28.01)