Friday, August 27, 2010

LVS Watch

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) broke thorugh the 20-day moving averge to the upside on renewed strength of a bull trend on the fast stochastic. The less volatile indicators remain in bear phase.

LVS $29.15

The best bull play in my book is to catch as stock just as it turns up from a correction. The major momentum is up in such cases, and that increases the odds of a successful play.

LVS fits that prescription. It hit a low of $1.38 in March 2009 and has been recording a series of higher highs and higher lows every since.

The stock is not only trading above the 20-day moving average, but it is also well above the 200-day ma.

On the downside, the parabolic sar, Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) and the macd remain in bear phase, although the macd is moving up toward the zero line and bulldom.

Also, the volume isn't spiking with today's rise, which has covered 5.6% intraday.

The fast stochastic, although in bull phase, has been a bit wishy washy about the whole thing. It turned bullish on Aug. 12, bearish on Aug. 20, bullish again on Aug. 25, appoached to within 6 stochastic points of a new bear signal on Aug. 26, and today is rising enthusiastically to more than 60 stochastic points.

On the Person's chart, today's open was on the lower weekly pivot, and the high has approached the midline, so it's a bullish configuration despite the bear phase, and a close above the $29.44 midline level would confirm that.

Person's Table
ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
LVS $29.15 $30.08 aug23 $30.66 +5.2% $28.41 -2.5%

A move above $30.47 would mark a higher high, and the pullback five trading days ago failed to break below the previous near-term low. So the parts are in place for a continuation of the uptrend.

Reversal Levels
  • $30.47, +4.5% (swing high)
  • $29.15 <== You are here.
  • $28.69, -1.6% (20-day ma)
  • $27.02, -7.3% (swing low)
  • $21.25, -27.1% (200-day ma)
Bottom line: I like this stock a lot as a bull play. It has the hallmarks of a vehicle that just keeps chugging up the slope. Is gaming a volatile business? Yes. Is it sensitive to a double dip recession if one should occur? Yes. What, me worry? With LVS, not so much. There will be news and anlayst surprises, but the technicals give it a good chance of being a successful trade.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
  • sto zone: green for bull phase, red for bear phase.

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