Monday, August 2, 2010

8/3 Almanac

On Tuesday, Aug. 3: Income & outlays.

There are 18 days before the August options expire, 46 the September and 74 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, trading calendar and a good book...

Stats

Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 2.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.3% low to high in a net move up of 0.7%.

The day's extremes: Open $111.99, high $112.94, low $111.54, close $112.76.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $112.15-$113.55.

In total, 3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 9% fewer than on the prior trading day.


Econ reports:

Personal income and outlays will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. This report can move markets, and arguably now more than ever. It tracks the portion of income that Americans are spending, and derives from that the rate at which people are saving.

The shock of the 2007/2008 collapse of finance moved the country into a strong savings mode: Pay off the debt and sock some money away. It's great for the personal bottom line, but not so great for the economy, which relies in large measure on consumers' willingness to shop 'till they drop.

I like this report a lot because it highlights one of the many ways that the interests of capitalists enterprises are not identical with the interests of the rest of us.

Another major report, the pending home sales index, is out at 10 a.m. It tracks housing transactions that have been contracted for but have not yet closed.

Also, motor vehicle sales throughout the day: Who will win, Government Motors or the private sector?

Small fry: The ICSC-Goldman store sales report at 7:45 a.m., a Redbook retail report at 8:55 a.m., and factory orders at 10 a.m.

It should be an interesting day.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade September calendar and vertical spreads. Also, October straddles and single calls or puts. Shares, of course, are good anytime.


Good trading!













The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we remerge from the wreckage.



Abbreviations:

  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

No comments:

Post a Comment