Wednesday, August 11, 2010

AOD Watch

The former really great dividend play Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) is showing a bull signal today as it again drops below the 20-day simple moving average. With its heavy European exposure, AOD is vulnerable to fluctuations of the euro, which is down 2.4% intraday.


The bear phase is coming from Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) and has not yet been confirmed by the parabolic sar or the macd.

However, the volatile fast stochatic gave a bear signal on Tuesday, and the macd is dropping toward the zero line and bear phase.

AOD was once a wonder child of dividend plays, with yields exceeding 20%, paid monthly. Under pressure from the euro debt crisis, the funds managers cut the dividend beginning with July's, and the yield is now 12.45%, a poor return for exposure to currency exchange fluctuations.

The fluctuations have been so narrow that support and resistance are basically meaningless. AOD will show a significant price rise when the traders conclude that the euro is strengthening and the company's European holdings are secure from massive foreign exchange risk.

If Europe's situation continues to worsen, I look for AOD to march down in lockstep with the euro.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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