8/16 Morningline

• Treasury long-term bonds gap up as returns fall to levels not seen since the spring of 2009 (TLT).
• Low interest? No interest! Dollar slides against the yen after Friday's bull signal (USD/JPY).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

TLT opened 2.5% above Friday's close, setting a new high on the three-month chart.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators. Twenty-year bond yields, which move inversely to the price, fell to as low as 3.78%, the lowest level since April 2009.

Who knows why, really. The Chinese are said to be selling Treasuries, which theoretically ought to lower the price. However, with the recovery look very shaky, I suspect that expectations of future rate increases are being yanked out of the pricing.

Oil and Gold

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
USO
GLD

Global

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
EEM

USD/JPY has fallen 1.2 % intraday after moving to bull phase on Friday. The parabolic sar and Person's Proprietary Signal remain in bull phase. However, the macd has reversed course and is falling toward the zero line, and the fast stochastic has reversed sharply short of the 80-line and is now falling through neutrality toward the 20-line.

The headline for Japan is that it is no longer the Earth's second-largest economy, but has fallen to third place, after China. That, if anything, would tend to depress the yen. The move in the opposite direction likely reflects less interest in the dollar because of reduced bond yields.

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index


Abbreviations:

• psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
• adx - Average Directional Index
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
• ma20 - 20-day moving average
• macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
• sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.