- Signals are again aligned in bear phase on Treasury long-term bonds (TLT).
- Gold gets a bear bump from the fast stochastic (GLD).
- Euro in dollar trading, emerging markets get a bear signal from the fast stochastic (EUR/USD, EEM).
Stocks and Rates
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||||
| QQQQ | ||||||||
| VIX | ||||||||
| TLT | ||||||||
| JNK |
The Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) moved to bear phase on TLT late Wednesday on a price decline that covered 1% intraday. The reversal ended a three-day bull whipsaw that saw a 1% price decline over its brief lifetime -- a losing signal that was. The parabolic sar didn't whipsaw, so the pps bull phase was out of sync with the psar and also the macd.
Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.
Oil and Gold
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | ||||||||
| GLD |
On GLD, the fast stochastic has crossed the 80-line down into neutrality, which is a bear signal. The fast stochastic is called "fast" for a reason -- it is prone to sudden reversals, and the signal is not strongly directional. So, yes, it is a bear signal. Am I betting the ranch on a price decline -- not at all.
Global
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ||||||||
| USD/JPY | ||||||||
| EEM |
The EUR/USD pair and EEM both saw the fast stochastic cross below the 80-line into the neutral zone, a bear signal. It's more bearish for EEM, since the signal is pointing downward. The EUR/USD fast stochastic is pretty much a sideways trend.
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we reemerge from the wreckage.
Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index
Abbreviations:
- psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
- adx - Average Directional Index
- pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
- ma20 - 20-day moving average
- macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
- sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
- trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
- adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
- psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
- sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
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