- High-yield corporate debt bear signal proves to be a ghost -- again (JNK).
- Gold crosses above 80-line on the fast stochastic; gaps up (GLD).
- Macd moves to bear phase in dollar trading against the yen (USD/JPY).
Stocks and Rates
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | ||||||||
| QQQQ | ||||||||
| VIX | ||||||||
| TLT | ||||||||
| JNK |
JNK's bearish ghosting has become a habit, not an exception. The price has been sideways for three days running after an upward gap. There are no phase switches this morning on JNK, ghostly or otherwise.
Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.
Oil and Gold
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | ||||||||
| GLD |
The fast stochastic's move above the 80-line on GLD, as usual, delivers two messages: 1) This is a strong bull trend, (2) The first requirement for the inevitable bear signal is now in place.
The bear signal will happen once the fast stochastic recrosses the 80-line in a downward direction, moving back into the neutral zone.
Global
| trend | adx | psar | pps | macd | macd trend | sto | sto trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ||||||||
| USD/JPY | ||||||||
| EEM |
My junk mail collection these days is sure to include a gloom-and-doom essay on how President Obama is making war on the dollar and soon it will have the value of a rusty paper clip.
The dollar's performance against the yen seems to play along with that school of thought. The macd's move to bear phase today is only a confirmation of existing bear signals on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) and the parabolic sar, and comes amid a long-standing downtrend in price.
Significant? Maybe. Surprising? Not at all.
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we reemerge from the wreckage.
Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index
Abbreviations:
- psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
- adx - Average Directional Index
- pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
- ma20 - 20-day moving average
- macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
- sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
- trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
- adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
- psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
- sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
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