Monday, May 3, 2010

ITMN Watch

InterMune Inc. (ITMN), although showing a bull signal on the parabolic sar, has a lot not to like.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
ITMN $46.71

It gapped up hugely in March, more than doubling in price on analyst upgrades and a drug approval by the FDA. Since then, it has been on a meandering sideays march to nowhere.

So despite the signal, and despite the strong average directional index reading of 39, and despite the fact that this move is with the trend as it shows on the three-month chart, I wouldn't touch this stock.

I'm posting about it more to make a point. As anyone who reads my work knows, I rely heavily on technical signals as a filter, so I can focus on stock issues where something is happening, and quickly discard the rest.

However many tools I use, I eventually have to rely on the look and feel of the chart.

In the end, it's a question of art, not math. A horrible admission from a technical trader, but absolutely true.

So ITMN isn't voted of the island, but cast back into the ocean before it reaches the beach.

The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets

Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.



Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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