Monday, May 3, 2010

XLI Watch

The exchange-traded fund that tracks industrial companies, XLI, is showing a bull signal on the parabolic sar.

It's in line with an uptrend since February (I should abbreviate that, since I write it so often: Febut? Sounds like sick frog).

trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
XLI $33.22

The average directional index is a strong 35, although it is declining.

The major signals are mixed: bull on the psar, bear on Person's Proprietary Signal. Also, the price is coming off of a three-day bear whipsaw.

So it's not something I would jump into, but it's worth watching.

Most of upside resistance is historical, dating back to September 2008.

Power levels:
  • $35.00, +5.4%
  • $34.82, +4.8%
  • $33.46, +0.7%
  • $33.22 <== You are here
  • $32.34, -2.7%
More upside potential than downside once $33.46 is pierced.

The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets

Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.



Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
SPY - blue-chip stocks
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index

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