5/17 Watchlist: Stocks

No new additions to the Watchlist as I evaluate my analytical methods in light of Friday's market-wide whipsaw, which devastated the Watchlist. I discussed the way forward in a posting on Sunday.


The Watchlist is divided into two parts. The first is the current Watchlist containing those stocks that survivied Friday's carnage. The second lists the stocks knocked off the Watchlist on Friday, so I can keep track of the rest of their story in order to evaluate my analysis.

A cursory reading of the two sections raises the question of how do the survivors differ from the trades that failed. I've described Friday as a "carnage", but it was selective, not wholesale.

The second thing that strikes me is that there is very little continuation of Friday's decline among the failed trades.

"In@" is the price at which the signal was opened.


Part 1: Current Watchlist

Stocks that showed Parabolic SAR . . .

Bull signals:

• DDS, 5/14. In@ $28.73. Trading within Friday's range.
• DISH, 5/14. In@ $23.19. Trading within Friday's range with an up bias.
• EBAY, 5/13. In@$23.08. Within Friday's range.
• * JNK, 5/13. In@ $38.96. Within Friday's range with a down bias.
• NFLX, 5/13. In@ $115.74. Within Friday's range with an up bias.
• PCAR, 4/23. In@ $47.77. Within Friday's range with a down bias as the stock goes ex-dividend.
• QQQQ, 5/11. In@ $47.80. Within Friday's range with a down bias.
• XLE, 4/17. In@ $59.00. I pegged this as a $56 to $60 May iron condor. It's trading below the profitable range but remains in bull phase.
• YHOO, 5/14. In@ $16.44. Within Friday's range with a down bias.

Bear signals:

• ABT, 5/6. In@ $50.01. Within Friday's range.

Stocks of interest (I wouldn't necessarily trade them):

• FNM,  4/13, 4/23. Agnostic. A drop below support 99¢, followed by a retreat back to the support level.

Part 2: The Wreckage

Stocks that showed Parabolic SAR . . .

Bull signals:

• ARM, 5/11. In@ $16.22. Shows a pps bear signal on a decline below the ma20. Exiting at $14.93 as a FAILURE, for an 8% loss. Trading within Friday's range.
• BBT, 5/11. In@ $34.81. Shows a pps bear signal on a decline to the ma20. Exiting at $33.84 as a FAILURE for a 2.8% loss. A further decline.
• BBY, 5/11. In@ $44.61. Shows a pps bear signal on a downward gap. Exiting at $42.84 as a FAILURE for a 4% loss. Trading within Friday's range.
• * CIEN, 4/26. In@ $18.12. I held this over the Greek panic. It's in bear mode on the psar and ought to have been exited on May 6. This is an example of flawed execution of a trading system. Trading within Friday's range.
  
• CVX, 5/3. In@ $82.54. I held this over the Greek panic. It's in bear mode on the psar and ought to have been exited on May 4. An example of flawed execution of a trading system. Within Friday's range with a down bias.
  
• F, 5/13. In@$12.84. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $12.02 as a FAILURE for a 6.4% loss. A furtehr decline.
• GCI, 5/12. In@ $17.06. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $15.67 as a FAILURE for an 8.1% loss. Trading within Friday's range with an up bias.
• INTC, 5/12. In@ $22.80. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $21.62 as a FAILURE for a 5.2% loss. Within Friday's range with a down bias.
• IYR, 5/12. In@ $53.65. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $51.38 as a FAILURE for a 4.2% loss. Within Friday's range with a down bias.
• SPY, 5/12. In@ $117.24. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $113.41 as a FAILURE for a 3.3% loss. Within Friday's range with a down bias.
• * UNP, 4/29. In@ $77.89. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $74.02 as a FAILURE for a 5% loss. Within Friday's range with a down bias.
• XLI, 5/3. In@ $33.22. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $31.10 as a FAILURE for a 6.4% loss. Within Friday's range with a down bias. 

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