Thursday, May 13, 2010

EBAY Watch

The online auction service eBay Inc. (EBAY) is showing a parabolic sar bull signal on a 2.9% gap up at the open. The price bump followed analyst upgrades and assorted happy talk.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
EBAY $23.08
At 10:33 a.m. Eastern

The signal is counter to a downtrend that has lasted since March 25. In a broader view, the stock has been trading sideways since last September, with the most recent rise counting as a wider-than-usual swing in a continuation of that sideways pattern.

The March swing high indeed exceeded the general upper range by about 10%, but then dropped to below the bottom of the range. So the price set a higher high followed by a lower low, and that gives me no confidence that the present signal marks the beginning of a persistant, long-term rise.

Even so, the stock is trading just a bit above $23, and the sideways channel top is around $25. That's nearly 9% in upside potential. I'll take that any day.

Reversal Levels
  • $28.37, +22.9% (swing high)
  • $24.81, +7.5% (channel high)
  • $23.08 <== You are here.

  • $21.97, -4.8%

  • $21.25, -7.9%

  • $20.56, -10.9% (panic low)


The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets
Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.

Skynet Panic of May 6 Panic Looks Like This Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools Abbreviations: psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse adx - Average Directional Index pps - Person's Proprietary Signal ma20 - 20-day moving average macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence mfi - Money Flow Index sto - Fast Stochastic About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
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