Wednesday, May 12, 2010

GCI Watch

The largest U.S. newspaper chain, Gannett Co. Inc. (GCI), is showing bull phase on both the parabolic sar and Person's Proprietary Signal.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
GCI $17.06
At 11:03 a.m. Eastern

A new upswing would continue the price rise that began in March 2009 at $1.85. The stock is now trading around $17.

This is a fairly clean chart, with little ambiguity. The price hit a swing high of $19.69 on April 16, declined down to $14.33 on May 7 (ignoring the mini-panic low), which marks a higher low, and has retraced a bit less than half the decline so far.

I don't normally talk fundamentals, but as an old newshound I can say that Gannett knows how to turn a profit. Yes, the print newspaper business is in deep trouble and is dying in its present form. If any newspaper company has the management smarts to rise like the Phoenix from the ashes, it's Gannett.

So, technicals aside, GCI is a feel-good company for me. That may give me a pro-trade bias.

Reversal Levels
  • $19.69, +15.4%
  • $18.85, +10.5%
  • $17.27, +1.2%
  • $17.06 <==You are here.

  • $16.12, -5.5%

Back to the technicals: A swing above $19.69 would be a high high, confirming the uptrend. However, there's 15.4% worth of upside potential between here and there, attractive under anybody's rules. The one caveat is that GCI is a marginally trending stock the last three months or so. That could be an issue -- whipsaws -- but all in all the large upside potential overrides the weakness of the trend in my book.
The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets
Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.

Skynet Panic of May 6 Panic Looks Like This Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools Abbreviations: psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse adx - Average Directional Index pps - Person's Proprietary Signal ma20 - 20-day moving average macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence mfi - Money Flow Index sto - Fast Stochastic About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
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