Bottom line: The parabolic sar (psar) is broken. The Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) is not. See details below.
The Watchlist is divided into two parts. The first is the current Watchlist containing those stocks that survivied Friday's carnage. The second lists the stocks knocked off the Watchlist on Friday, so I can keep track of the rest of their story in order to evaluate my analysis.
A cursory reading of the two sections raises the question of how do the survivors differ from the trades that failed. I've described Friday as a "carnage", but it was selective, not wholesale.
The second thing that strikes me is that there is very little continuation of Friday's decline among the failed trades.
"In@" is the price at which the signal was opened.
Part 1: Current Watchlist
Stocks that showed Parabolic SAR . . .
Bull signals. Note the signals have done nothing to close out the trades with minimal losses. The exits have been catastrophic (XLE aside) and the stocks not yet having exit signals are down in catastrophe territory.
- DDS, 5/14. In@ $28.73. Trading at the bottom of the week's range.
- DISH, 5/14. In@ $23.19. Trading below Friday's range with a down bias.
- EBAY, 5/13. In@$23.08. Below Friday's range.
- * JNK, 5/13. In@ $38.96. Below Friday's range.
- NFLX, 5/13. In@ $115.74. Below Friday's range. A pps bear signal showed late Tuesday, so by the rules it would be an exit at $100.03 as a FAILURE for a 13.3% loss.
- PCAR, 4/23. In@ $47.77. Below Friday's range. Ex-dividend.
- QQQQ, 5/11. In@ $47.80. Below Friday's range.
- XLE, 4/17. In@ $59.00. I pegged this as a $56 to $60 May iron condor. It's trading below the profitable range and today switched to bear phase. The exit would be at $54.51 as a possible SUCCESS if the lower wing was $54, a minor FAILURE if it was $55.
- YHOO, 5/14. In@ $16.44. Below Friday's range.
Stocks of interest (I wouldn't necessarily trade them):
Part 2: The Wreckage
Signals were opened with a Parabolic SAR . . .
Bull phase. Of these, only CIEN and GCI are showing a bear phase on both the psar and the pps, lending credence to the idea that the psar signal was broken by the software-driven mini-panic of May 6.
- ARM, 5/11. In@ $16.22. Shows a pps bear signal on a decline below the ma20. Exiting at $14.93 as a FAILURE, for an 8% loss. A further 5.2% decline.
- BBT, 5/11. In@ $34.81. Shows a pps bear signal on a decline to the ma20. Exiting at $33.84 as a FAILURE for a 2.8% loss. A further decline.
- BBY, 5/11. In@ $44.61. Shows a pps bear signal on a downward gap. Exiting at $42.84 as a FAILURE for a 4% loss. Trading within Friday's range.
- * CIEN, 4/26. In@ $18.12. I held this over the Greek panic. It's in bear mode on the psar and ought to have been exited on May 6. This is an example of flawed execution of a trading system. A further 3.6% decline.
- CVX, 5/3. In@ $82.54. I held this over the Greek panic. It's in bear mode on the psar and ought to have been exited on May 4. An example of flawed execution of a trading system. Within Friday's range.
- F, 5/13. In@$12.84. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $12.02 as a FAILURE for a 6.4% loss. A further decline but up intra-day.
- GCI, 5/12. In@ $17.06. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $15.67 as a FAILURE for an 8.1% loss. A further decline.
- INTC, 5/12. In@ $22.80. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $21.62 as a FAILURE for a 5.2% loss. Within Friday's range with an up bias.
- IYR, 5/12. In@ $53.65. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $51.38 as a FAILURE for a 4.2% loss. Further decline.
- SPY, 5/12. In@ $117.24. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $113.41 as a FAILURE for a 3.3% loss. A pause in the decline.
- * UNP, 4/29. In@ $77.89. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $74.02 as a FAILURE for a 5% loss. Further decline
- XLI, 5/3. In@ $33.22. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $31.10 as a FAILURE for a 6.4% loss. Further decline.
Skynet Panic of May 6 Panic Looks Like This Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools
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