Friday, May 14, 2010

5/14 Morningline: Stocks and Bonds

Fresh europaranoia in media reports this morning. Blue chip stocks (SPY) are trading down by more than a percent, below the range set after the May 6-7 mini-panic and mini-collapse.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
SPY $114.18
VIX 30.78
TLT $94.64
At 10:01 a.m. Eastern

The fear index (VIX), which measures the volatility of blue-chip stocks, is up by 15% or so. Treasury long-term bonds (TLT) are also up by more than a percent.

The French President, Sarkozy, has threatened to pull out of the euro as a dig at the Germans.

It's as through the Greek bailout agreement of last weekend never happened.

I live on the Pacific Rim, and I truly don't understand why the markets, or anyone, care about Europe. The Europeans have been nothing but trouble since 1914. Arguably, 96 years of seeing markets and lives battered by crazed europaranoiacs is enough, already.

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
SPY - blue-chip stocks
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index



The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets

Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.



Skynet Panic of May 6
Panic Looks Like This
Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools


Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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