Monday, May 10, 2010

Opened AOD Dividend Position

I've reopened my dividend position in the Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD).
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
AOD $8.51
At 1:40 p.m. Eastern

I had exited the fund on April 26 when it showed a bear signal on the parabolic sar. The stock afterward declined to a low of $7.51 (if you include the mini-panic of May 6), or $7.92 if you consider the panic to be an invalid outlier in terms of analysis (I take the latter approach).

AOD gapped up this morning, and then pulled back intraday. I opened a $8.51 a share, and I had exited at $9.09 a share, so by paying attention to the psar, I managed a 58¢ gain.

My entry is poorly supported by the tech analysis. The psar remains in bear mode, as does the Person's Proprietary Signal. However, those two signals were poisoned by the mini-panic (if you take my point of view that the event was an unnatural artifact of flawed order execution). The macd, which uses closing prices only, wasn't poisoned, and although still in bear territory, below the zero line, it's direction turned up decisively today.

The stochastic, which was tainted, had move from oversold into the neutral zone prior to the panic, and it continues to rise.

So, the macd and the stochastic combined with the opening gap makes the trade attractive, despite the fact that I'm breaking some rules.

The exchange-traded fund goes ex-dividend on May 20, and a 12¢-per-share monthly dividend will be paid on May 28 to shareholders of record on May 24.

The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets

Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.



Skynet Panic of May 6
Panic Looks Like This
Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools


Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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