Nearly all of the bull signals of the the last two weeks were reversed as Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) moved into bear phase. It send to lead the parabolic sar (psar), and so I use it as a skedaddle signaller.
My scan of all optionable stocks having 3 million share or more in volume (and priced at $5 or more) shows only 40 or so at this point with price increases.
The pps bear signals came on sharp price drops that wiped out all gains and put the stocks into losing territory
Now the caveat: The pps was poisoned to the downside by the robot-driven mini-panic of May 6. See the "Skynet Panic" articles listed at the end of this posting.
My fallback indicator is the macd, which doesn't use intra-day prices and so came through the panic without a false bias. The macd signals are nowhere near so dire.
However, the technical tool that counts the most -- price -- was sharply bearish, and so the losing exits are justified.
What lesson to take from this? I don't conclude that technical analysis is false. Rather, I think the rational conclusion is that tech analysis won't predict a news surprise or a rumour-driven panic.
Perhaps optimistically, added three stocks to the bull signal list.
"In@" is the price at which the signal was opened.
Stocks that showed Parabolic SAR . . .
Bull signals:
- ARM, 5/11. In@ $16.22. Shows a pps bear signal on a decline below the ma20. Exiting at $14.93 as a FAILURE, for an 8% loss.
- BBT, 5/11. In@ $34.81. Shows a pps bear signal on a decline to the ma20. Exiting at $33.84 as a FAILURE for a 2.8% loss.
- BBY, 5/11. In@ $44.61. Shows a pps bear signal on a downward gap. Exiting at $42.84 as a FAILURE for a 4% loss.
- * CIEN, 4/26. In@ $18.12. I held this over the Greek panic. It's in bear mode on the psar.
- CVX, 5/3. In@ $82.54. I held this over the Greek panic. It's in bear mode on the psar.
- DDS, 5/14. In@ $28.73. New today.
- DISH, 5/14. In@ $23.19. New today.
- EBAY, 5/13. In@$23.08.
- F, 5/13. In@$12.84. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $12.02 as a FAILURE for a 6.4% loss.
- GCI, 5/12. In@ $17.06. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $15.67 as a FAILURE for an 8.1% loss.
- INTC, 5/12. In@ $22.80. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $21.62 as a FAILURE for a 5.2% loss.
- IYR, 5/12. In@ $53.65. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $51.38 as a FAILURE for a 4.2% loss.
- * JNK, 5/13. In@ $38.96
- NFLX, 5/13. In@ $115.74
- PCAR, 4/23. In@ $47.77
- QQQQ, 5/11. In@ $47.80
- SPY, 5/12. In@ $117.24. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $113.41 as a FAILURE for a 3.3% loss.
- * UNP, 4/29. In@ $77.89. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $74.02 as a FAILURE for a 5% loss.
- XLE, 4/17. In@ $59.00. I pegged this as a $56 to $60 May iron condor. It's trading below the profitable range but remains in bull phase.
- XLI, 5/3. In@ $33.22. Showing a pps bear signal. Exiting at $31.10 as a failure for a 6.4% loss
- YHOO, 5/14. In@ $16.44. New today.
Stocks of interest (I wouldn't necessarily trade them):
Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.
Skynet Panic of May 6
Panic Looks Like This
Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools
New to private trading? Here's a look at How to Become a Private Trader.
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