Thursday, May 13, 2010

F (Ford) Watch

Ford Motor Co. (F) is showing a bull signal on the parabolic sar after the automaker's executive chairman, Bill Ford, said the board would make reinstating the dividend a top of discussion.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
F $12.84
At 10:48 a.m. Eastern

The amorphous prospect of a dividend discussion in the sweet bye-and-bye caused a 1.5% gap up at the open, but otherwise the price went nowhere.

Ford's price has multiplied 14 times since the November 2008 low of $1.01. The stock hit a swing high of $14.57 on April 27 and then took a swift slide on the earnings announcement, hitting a low of $10.95 on May 7. (This analysis ignores the software-driven mini-panic low of $10.59 set on May 6.)

The three-month chart shows a sideways trend swinging between around $12 at the low end and $14.50 at the high.

Reversal Levels
  • $14.57, +13.5% (swing high)
  • $13.73, +6.9%
  • $13.16, +2.5% (20-day moving average)
  • $12.84 <== You are here.
  • $11.85, -7.7%
  • $10.95, -14.7% (swing low)
Despite the lack of a strong trend, there's plenty of upside potential within the sidewinding channel. By my rules, it's an attractive directional play, with the caveat that I would need to be very hair-trigger about exiting.

The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.


Skynet Panic of May 6 Panic Looks Like This Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools Abbreviations: psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse adx - Average Directional Index pps - Person's Proprietary Signal ma20 - 20-day moving average macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence mfi - Money Flow Index sto - Fast Stochastic About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
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