FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) has hit the nine-month swing low of 88¢ two trading days running. That price was a strong bounce point when it was touched on Nov. 30, and Friday was the first time it has been touched since then.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $0.94

At 12:05 p.m. Eastern

In the 35% decline from the April 13 swing high, FNM has sliced through two Fibonacci retracement levels like butter, not to mention the once sacrosanct 99¢ support level.

A review of prices shows that technical analysis would have kept the savvy trader safe from most of the pain.

Here are tables, using the day's opening as the theoretical trade price. The 5/24 line shows the gain and loss as of today's opening, even if the signal phase has not changed.

Parabolic SAR Phase Change

• 3/9, bull, $1.00
• 5/3, bear, $1.23, +23.0%
• 5/24, ----, $0.97, +23.6%
• Net gain: +46.6%

Person's Proprietary Signal Phase change

• 3/5, bull, $1.01
• 3/15, bear, $1.07, +5.9%
• 3/19, bull, $1.10, -2.8%
• 3/25, bear, $1.10, Unchg
• 4/6, bull, $1.05, +4.5%
• 4/27, bear, $1.24, +18.1%
• 5/24, ----, 0.97, +21.8%
• Net gain: +47.5%

MACD Crossover

• 3/9, bull, $1.00
• 3/26, bear, $1.07, +7.0%
• 4/9, bull, $1.12, -4.7%
• 4/28, bear, $1.21, +8.0%
• 5/24, ----, 0.97, +19.8%
• Net gain: +30.1%

Note that the MACD did the worst of the batch. A similar study of SPY showed the MACD leading the pack.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic

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Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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