Monday, May 10, 2010

CPN Watch

Calpine Corp. (CPN) shows a parabolic sar bull signal today. It produced an extreme intra-day low during the mini-panic of May 6, but that ought to have, if anything, a depressing effect on a switch to bull phase.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
CPN $13.72
At 2:35 p.m. Eastern

Although the average directional index, at 33, suggests a strongly trending stock, the reality is somewhat different.

CPN began a sharp rise on April 19, at $11.58, and it peaked on May 3 at $14.

CPN has exceeded the $14 level only once since the collapse of capitalist finance began in 2007/2008. That was in June 2009. Otherwise, the stock has maintained a strong sideways trend bounded by around $12.50 and $10.50, with a few breakthroughs on either side.

So I won't take it on my own account as a directional trade. It might be a candidate for an iron condor bounded by $15 and $10 on the short legs, but the premium, at 15¢, isn't particularly attractive.


The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets

Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.



Skynet Panic of May 6
Panic Looks Like This
Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools


Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


New to Private Trader? Check out the Reader's Guide.

New to private trading? Here's a look at How to Become a Private Trader.

No comments:

Post a Comment