Monday, May 10, 2010

JNJ Watch

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shows a parabolic sar bull signal today. It isn't a strongly trending stock, and would be a candidate for a sideways play, such as an iron condor.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
JNJ $64.51
At 2:49 p.m. Eastern

The average directional index is margine, at 23.


JNJ has been bounded by $66 on the high side and $62 on the low side, with a few short-lived breakouts, since November 2009.

A June iron condor, with maximum profit at expiration between $60 and $67.50, with wings $2.50 wide, provides a 45¢ premium credit, not to terribly shoddy. However, the maximum loss is $2.05, so the reward/risk ratio is really radically rotten.

Bottom line: It's a decent play for traders untroubled by the outsized potential loss. That's generally traders confident they can nimbly skip out of the position before that loss is realized, a not unreasonable approach.

For traders who tend to be less nimble, who find it harder to exit a trade, then it's probably less attractive.


The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets

Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.



Skynet Panic of May 6
Panic Looks Like This
Skynet Panic Poisons Technical Tools


Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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