Monday, May 3, 2010

CVX Watch

Chevron Corp. (CVX) is showing parabolic sar bull phase, from Friday, with an average directional indicator of 33. The signal is in line with an uptrend that stretches back to February.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
CVX $82.54

The signal came in conjunction with an earnings announcement, although without a huge upswing in price. Because it's in line with trend and comes at the end of a three day bear whipsaw, I think it's worth noting.

The stock is now trading at a level that puts it within an area of contestion set back in September 2008, during a sideways paus in the decline that began with the general collapse of finance.

Power levels:
  • $89.75, +8.7%
  • $83.14, +0.7%
  • $82.54 <== You are here
  • $79.85, -3.3%
 More upside potential than downside, was $83.14 is breached. It should be noted that CVX, like any energy stock, is more prone to news and policy suprises than most. I never open exposure to this complex sector without a tremor of fear.

The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets

Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.



Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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