Wednesday, May 5, 2010

5/5 Watchlist: Forex

Two new additions to the Person's Proprietary Signal analysis: NZD/USD awaiting bear confirmation, and EUR/CAD, confirmed. GBP/CHF placed on confirmed bull list.

The legacy parabolic sar analysis -- all bearish with a heavy euro exposure -- continue in the main to do what euro pairs do: Drop like a rock.

Person's Proprietary Signal analysis:

Awaiting confirmation, bear:
  • EUR/CHF, 5/3. I would want to see a move below range before declaring it confirmed. Downside pivot at SF1.399
  • NZD/USD, 5/5. New today. The move is sharply down, but today's high was above the pps moving average. So I would want to see a trading day entirely below the average, or a retracement and bounce, before declaring confirmation. The lower pivot is at US$0.7044.
Confirmed, bull:
  • GBP/CHF, 5/3. A large upward move today entirely above the pps moving average. Confirmation at today's open, SF1.6699. The upper pivot is SF1.707.
Confirmed, bear:
  • EUR/CAD, 5/5. New today, with trading entirely below the pps moving average. Confirmation at today's open, C$1.3304. Lower pivot at C$1.2988.

This is the old-style analysis, what's left of it. It will be phased out once these signals have passed from the list.

Forex currency pairs showing parabolic sar bear signals:


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A note on method: For stocks, I choose among signals, only watching those that meet a set of criteria aimed at  moving the probabilities more in my favor.

For the 16 forex pairs I follow, I watch all signals, even when the trend is weak and the whipsaws likely.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal


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