Thursday, September 8, 2011

9/8 Forex

There are six price-channel breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow, three with strong trends.

I found these parabolic sar phase changes, all to the bull side: USD/SGD and USD/THB

It’s not a breakout, but EUR/CHF at one point traded 1.5% above the SF1.20 peg announced by the Swiss government. Pretty weak peg. I mean, 177 pips is huge, given the leverage available in forex trading.

Strong-Trend Breakouts

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
AUD/ZAR  
31
sep8 R7.616 R7.517 0.099 1.3%
GBP/PLN  
37
sep8 zł4.8605 zł4.8228 0.0673 1.4%
USD/INR  
45
sep8 ₹46.17 ₹45.87 0.30 0.7%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

Weak-Trend Breakouts

sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
AUD/CHF+  
25
sep8 SF0.9176 SF0.8936 0.0240 2.6%
CHF/SEK+  
22
sep8 Skr7.354 Skr7.595 0.241 3.3%
NZD/PLN  
24
sep8 zł2.5122 zł2.4725 0.0397 1.6%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

Key

  • phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
  • atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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