Tuesday, September 20, 2011

LULU Watch

lululemon athletica Inc. (LULU) has pushed strongly above the 20-day price channel on the daily chart. The 30-minute chart shows an intraday rise, buttressing the breakout.

sym phase trend adx   200/50 40/10

Theup trend began on Aug. 23 at $46.14, so the stock has already seen 40% worth of rise. The question in playing this directional move is the one that plagues all price-channel breakouts: How much more bullish money remains on the sidelines after so much movement?

LULU has long had a position on my bullish list. No debt to speak of, return on equity of 39%, huge institutional ownership: From a fundamental standpoint, what's not to like?

And the stock has delivered, rising steadily with the occasional pullback since March 2009.

A channel bracketing the rise since August suggests an initial upside target of around $66.20.


  • phase: 20-day price channel phase, with green for bull trend, red for bear trend and yellow for neutral trend.
  • trend: Price direction, green for higher highs and higher lows, red for lower highs and lower lows, yellow for neither.
  • adx: Average directional index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • 200/50: The moving average cross, green for the 50-day ma above the 200, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.
  • 40/10: The moving average cross, green for the 10-day ma above the 40, red for below and yellow for closely aligned.

About my trading methods

Read a detailed explanation of my analysis method, including trading rules.


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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